If you hate the heat, you may have morbidly joked that you’ll have to move north to escape the impending wave of climate change. That’s true—but you may have to go further than you think.
In 2080, New York City will have a climate much like Lake Shore, Maryland. Seattle will look more like Portland, D.C. will be more akin to Paragould, Arkansas, and Austin’s closest analog isn’t even in the U.S. (it’ll be more like Nuevo Laredo, Mexico). These estimates are all courtesy of a new study in Nature Communicationsthat finds modern analogs for what the climates of 540 North American cities will look like in about 60 years. On average, the closest analog for the 2080 climate for each city was about 528 miles away, and mostly to the south.
Coastal News Today
One of the problems of a warming planet is glacial, the melting of ice that contributes to rising sea levels and flooding. The flight from that flooding at the Jersey Shore hasn’t even managed the other meaning of glacial — extremely slow.
There are many reasons for that, some of them subjective. People love to live near the ocean and back bays. They consider how much they’ve suffered so far from storms and flooding, and make a rough estimate of what they’ll experience going forward. They may have a bias in favor of doing nothing, in the absence of certainty on the magnitude and timing of future problems.
The most compelling reasons to retreat from flood-prone locations would be economic. A house, whether a primary or second home, is a big investment. But though an increase in flooding and storm damage is having some effect on the housing market and government regulation, it isn’t close to getting people to leave.
New Jersey has a Blue Acres program to buy out people whose properties are repeatedly flooded. The state has bought almost 650 homes, demolished them and barred housing from the land (as opposed to Green Acres, which buys land for preservation and recreation). But most of these repeat-flood-claim properties are along rivers in North Jersey, where the water is more a nuisance than an attraction, and property prices are correspondingly lower.
Report Highlights Need for Better Understanding of Investment Risk Assessment in Age of Climate Change
A new report from ULI and Heitman, a global real estate investment management firm, points to the pressing need for greater understanding throughout the industry of the investment risks posed by the impacts of climate change. It also highlights proactive measures taken by Heitman and other leading firms to stay at the forefront of mitigation strategies and accurately price risk into investment decisions.
Climate Risk and Real Estate Investment Decision-Making explores current methods for assessing and mitigating climate risk in real estate, including physical risks such as catastrophes and transitional risks such as regulatory changes, availability of resources, and attractiveness of locations. Both types of risks have financial impacts for real estate, including higher operational costs and declining property values. The report, released today at ULI’s Europe Conference in London, is based on insights from more than 25 investors and investment managers in Europe, North America, and the Asia Pacific region, as well as existing research.
Florida’s new Republican governor made headlines his first week in office in January with an environmentally focused executive order that included funding for Everglades restoration and new state-level positions focused on scientific analysis and accountability.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has earned cautious praise from environmental groups who say the commitment is a substantive step forward on water quality issues and underlying Everglades restoration challenges. But some state environmental leaders also say the order does not go far enough because it does not explicitly address the growing threat of climate change, which exacerbates some of Florida’s most severe environmental problems.
“It’s a fantastic first step,” said Rachel Silverstein, executive director of Miami Waterkeeper, a nonprofit that works to safeguard drinking water and marine ecosystems in South Florida. “It’s definitely not the end of the story.”