By Michael Chertoff, former Homeland Security secretary
In January, the World Economic Forum issued its long-running annual assessment of global risks, underscoring the dire state of both the climate and our information environment. Mis- and disinformation are ranked second, and extreme weather events are ranked fourth, among the most severe risks over the next two years. And over 10 years? Every one of the top six risks is related to mis/disinformation and assorted climate and environmental disruptions.
But while climate change and information manipulation are each severe threats, together they present a challenge that is more than the sum of its parts. From online hoaxes about wildfires in Los Angeles and Hawaii to Russian and extremist propaganda during Hurricane Helene, information manipulation is warping responses to climate change and extreme weather. And while climate denial is far from a new problem in energy and environmental policy, these dynamics increasingly strain security and stability.
As I’ve learned in my positions at the highest levels of government and industry, reliable information is a requirement for tackling any risk, whether a Florida hurricane or a terrorist plot. That’s why civil servants in national security, disaster relief and federal science have long taken pains to avoid the political fray. And it’s why under the last Trump administration, the secretary of defense warned of the security risks posed by climate change and bipartisan congressional legislation recognized that “climate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States.” The United States is less able to protect itself from these threats when it relies on false or distorted information, whether it comes from foreign adversaries, industry or dysfunctional social media dynamics.
Consider how Russia exploits disasters and climate debates. After storms and flooding across Spain, Poland and the United States in late 2024, Moscow worked to claim that support for Ukraine had left countries vulnerable, stoked grievances in NATO countries and discredited Western democracies. Or think of how extreme weather can disrupt voting access, creating real and perceived grievances that are fertile ground for authoritarian interference in elections.
Mis- and disinformation of this kind adds to the already severe national security threat of climate change, which the U.S. intelligence community warns “will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests.” Natural disasters in the United States are costing $130 billion per year, a sixfold increase since the 1980s, and killing Americans at roughly twice the historic rate. Heat, fires and flooding pose operational challenges for the U.S. armed forces and impose a growing demand for disaster relief, with the U.S. military deploying for more than 240 extreme weather crises globally since 2022. Climate-driven disasters fuel humanitarian crises, instability, migration (including to the United States) and critical infrastructure damage. Further, Russia and China are capitalizing on climate vulnerabilities to displace U.S. influence with key international partners.
Our need for reliable information on climate threats should matter to all Americans, regardless of location or political persuasion. The National Guard provides help for floods, fires and other disasters in red and blue states across the country, including in Florida. Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster relief mostly goes to red states, which are some of the most exposed to hurricanes and other threats. The annual bipartisan defense bill continues to add climate resilience provisions for the military, and clean energy and climate resilience policies continue to enjoy support from significant majorities of Americans. And right here in Florida, intensifying disasters and disinformation combine to endanger our lives, damage our livelihoods, threaten our military communities and divide our citizens.
The future is uncertain, but one thing is not: Intensifying extreme weather will be with us for the foreseeable future, as will the challenge of lies and propaganda. Failing to address these interlinked challenges endangers U.S. national security, regardless of politics. In the current environment, an all-hands-on-deck approach spanning state and local governments, academia, civil society and the private sector will be essential. Meanwhile, national leaders now and in the future must do better to help, and not hurt, our collective security from this challenge.
Michael Chertoff served as secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush. This opinion piece was originally published by the Tampa Bay Times, which is a media partner of The Invading Sea. Banner photo: A federal official participates in a live news interview about Hurricane Helene relief during a visit to the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Washington, D.C., in 2024 (USDAgov, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons).
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